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Travel industry in 2023 (By Eduardo of Exclusive Travel December 2022)

Looking forwards to next year we examine how the travel industry will be effected by factors yet to materialise.
The panick caused by governments responces to Covid lost the travel industry £billions. With far reaching devastation of the tourism industry in many countries that relied upon tourism to support an already fragile economy. Thousands of tourist operators across the world collapsed never to open again. Especially destructive for small local operators whose only source of income was from tourism.

However, despite many countries and their governments now relaxing the strict measures that were implemented in 2021, the industry is certainly not out of the woods yet, with a catalogue of problems looming over the horizon for 2023.

It's not just the tourism industry that will suffer as without any doubt whatsoever, there will be a great financial reset within the next 24 months that will affect most industries including hospitality and global tourism. Government and corporate debts have reached dizzy heights that can no longer be sustained, the banking system and stock markets are over leveraged to an extent way past danger level, interest rates and inflation are spiralling up and if thats not enough, energy has become so expensive that many energy hungry companies in the UK and Europe have already halted production along with thousands of small businesses either closed or facing bankruptcy. The financial world is ablaze with preditions of not if - but when this financial reset will happen. With sometime in 2023 being the general concensus amongst financial experts.

The food chain is also under possibly the worst threat of all times. In addition to abnormal weather patterns causing crop reductions, the three times greater cost of fertilizer, if its at all available, has seen many large scale farmers leaving fields fallow into next year. While countries like the Netherlands with half a million acres of glashouses which feed us and Europe with veg and fruit will not be growing anything until summer as the energy costs of gas and electicity makes it impossible. A cucumber would cost £5!! In many countries cattle farming has substantially reduced and in places halted completely due to the inflated cost of feed and government carbo credit initiatives to grow trees not food. In the UK eggs have virtually dissapeared from supermarket shelves due to farmers closing down their chicken farms as the cost to produce an egg is now nearly twice the price the supermarket pays.

The effect of all this will obviously filter down with as usual, the consumer suffering the most. We are already seeing here in the UK for the first time in history, where families in full time employment need the support of food banks and half a million kids go to school hungry! This winter many will face the delima of heating or eating. While many others can no longer afford the rising mortgage interest payments with foreclosures allready at all time highs. I forecast last year that this coming winter would be the 'winter of disscontent'. Not just the UK but for many countries. We are already seeing global demonstrations and strikes due to rising costs and depreciated wages. In the UK for the first time nurses are going on strike, along with transport and other vital services.

The tourism industry will unfortunately be affected from several directions.

Firstly, if inflation does not start receeding, which seems unlikely in the short term along with rising mortgage rates, the question is 'How many people will be able to afford a decent holiday in 2023?'

Secondly, some countries are already in civil unrest and this will escalate as conditions worsen. Some of those countries will be popular holiday destinations but potential visitors may be well advised not to travel there amidst street violence.

Thirdly will be the travel chaos both in the UK, Europe and some other countries. Remember years ago, when every peak travel period flights would come to a halt when the French air traffic controllers would strike? Well this time we have border control and other travel logistical staff joining in. Flight cabin crew have already started strike action with several air lines like TAP, Finnair, Quantas, Air France and several others affected from now until next year. To add more fuel to the fire, reaching the airport in the first place will be a mission, with public transport in mayhem as trains and other sectors already striking without any sign of resolution.

Lastly. Lets not forget the game changer that is looming over all our heads - the war in Ukraine. Russia has made it very clear from day one that resorting to tacticle nucleor strikes is very much an option. When two foes stand facing each other with unlimited ammunition, sooner or later a bullet will go astray and involve others. While NATO reiterates it does not want to go to war with Russia, the Kremlin reiterates its ready, willing and able for it, nucleor and all!
I see no peaceful resolution, any more than if say tomorrow France invaded Kent and declared it French. Then we start to defend ourselves and they launch daily rocket attacks on the rest of the UK and its capital cities. Peace would only happen when the Invaders retreated to their homeland.

The question is, how long will other countries or Nato stand back and watch a whole country being pulverised into rubble, its vital infrastructure like water and electricity destroyed and its people starved or frozen to either death or submission? It matters not how much money and weapons the world gives Ukraine, it will only help delay the inevitable total collapse of the country. As while Russia can stay safely within its borders launching rockets that can travel vast distances, Ukraine only has 'pea shooters' that can bearly reach the Russian border. So safe in the knowledge of no retaliation threat from the ground or skies, they can just pulverise the country 24/7 with their long range drones, rockets and artillary until theres nothing left to destroy and its peoples will is broken.
That should not and cannot be allowed to happen in these so called 'civilised' times of 2022 and only much stronger laungage from the west can circumvent this. A bully only comprehends strength in actions he takes and will not stop until faced by someone of equal or greater strength.

In conclusion therefore, while we hope and wish the impact of the above points are minimalised, some of them will happen and will have an impact on peoples choice of where to go on holiday along with great consideration of affordability. For holidays next year we reckon there will be a big demand like last year for local UK holidays and day outings. While sunny parts of Europe that are more affordable will be popular. Providing there is no civil unrest, Turkey will probably offer the best for luxury and price with all inclusive seven night deals in 4 star resorts for under £300 including return UK flights. (see our 'Discounted Travels Deals' page)

As my son wisely says "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst". So it might be wise to stock up on some long life food essentials before the price increases further or its just not available.